華銳風電悉數配售華電福新(816),獲利約1.3億多港元

根據路透香港資料華銳風電在今天於收市後悉數配售華電福新(816)約2.765億股舊股,配股價介乎HK$2.14-2.22,較今天的收市價折讓4.3-7.8%。高盛負責是次配售。

另外,根據香港經濟日報,今次是通過加速累計投標方式(Accelerated Bookbuilt Offering,ABO)配售的。

與傳統向市場詢價配售方式,ABO最大的分別是配股公司(華銳風電)與負責配售的投行(高盛)直接磋商配股的合理價。由於配售時沒有向市場詢價/試盤,配售可以在極短時間完成,不過缺點是折讓一般會較大。也許,高盛的顧客可能一早對華電福新有興趣,所以今次不用向市場詢價。

華銳風電配售約2.765億股,相當於華電福新H股的15.49%。今次用ABO方式配股,筆者估計所配售股份好大機會已落入強者手上。不過,由於其它基礎投資者也有可能減持,股價應該消化後才有動力向上。

另外,由5月10日起,華電福新納入可沽空名單内(http://www.hkex.com.hk/chi/market/partcir/sehk/2013/Documents/CT00913B1.pdf )。

fuxin_sinovel_update
免責聲明: 由於部分資料來自網上或筆者觀點/計算有誤,本圖表/本文內容可能存在錯漏和僅供參考之用。讀者在作任何投資決定前請諮詢專業人仕及自行承擔一切投資風險。

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13 Responses to 華銳風電悉數配售華電福新(816),獲利約1.3億多港元

  1. Tf says:

    Nice info. You are really up to date. Looking forward to see some disclosures. Wondering if FIL or greenwood will add. China investment just sold more 958, potential offloading?

  2. Tf says:

    Any thoughts on why 816 PE is still lagging behind peers?

    Regarding the 10 billion debt issue, i think it has been reduced to 1500 mil st debt and 2000 mil long term debt in which the phase 2 acquisition will cost around 400mil – other acquistions in the pipeline?

    Stock price – rise till cannot believe. Time to retreat from 2.7 i guess?

    • stockbisque says:

      The following info may be of interest to you.
      fuxin 2013 Q1

      $10B is the upper limit, I expect they will issue more debt. I suppose, the fund will be used to finance Kemen II and new distributed energy (DE) projects, as more DE projects will be in development phrase in the next few years. Plus, I speculate 816 will be one of the winners in the 3rd round of shale gas blocks’ exploration rights later this year.

  3. Tf says:

    i see. do you have any grounds for your speculation? Q1 results not that great when compared to peers as I guess hydro is pulling it down. Stock price today not really supporting it when compared to it peers. I was hoping for it to reach $3 but it topped at $2.7

  4. Tf says:

    2Q uptick ?

    美銀美林表示,華電福新(00816.HK)首季盈利2.24億人民幣,年前同期獲利4.17億人民幣。撇除特殊收益,福新首季經常性盈利按年持平,低過預期,主要由於水電產量按年降幅高過預期,加上風電場利用時數按年升5-6%,低過該行預期的7%,利息開支亦較預期高。

    華電福新首季水電量低過預期,是由於降雨延遲至5月。福新表示,自5月開始,水量已大幅回升,並預料今年水電量將達80億千瓦時,超出該行預期。該行指,水電價格每上調1%,福新今年純利將增1%。風電方面,位於新疆和甘肅的風電場利用率,將於今年第四季或明年首季反彈,利用率每增1%,福新今年每股盈測將增5.3%。

    該行下調華電福新2013-14每股盈測8%,以反映首季業績。福新現價相當於2013-14市盈率的11.6-9.4倍,較內地及全球主要同業低,但其2013-14資本收益率為6.1-6.5%,高過全球同業,與內地同業水平一致。目標價由2.55元升至2.75元,評級維持「買入」

    • stockbisque says:

      Lower earnings forecast but higher stock valuation … Reverse thinking!!!???

      Another round of selling by cornerstone investors (南車 & 社保基金). Not sure how much room for FIL to increase its position on 816, now it’s holding 11.5%. I suppose it wouldn’t put too much egg in a single nest.

      I sold my shares too when it hit my target price of $2.6, now waiting for timing to buy back, but there’s not hurry. The valuation of other new energy stocks are quite high, looks like some institutional investors/hedge funds are very bullish in this sector. Maybe I shall up my target price to $3.

      Any thought on the stock?

      • Tf says:

        Reported today that fil and fmr offloaded 958 and 956 at a lower price than what they buy from the previous high… Not a good sign and as u said, less eggs in one basket. If you also notice and if i didnt see wrongly, china social security fund up-ed their stake from 150 to 160 mil during the uptrend but kept it within 1%, then sold a mere 400k n brought it across the 9% mark – not sure how u would interpret it. Generally on a weak trend… Not too optimisic – really depends on 1h results if there will be another uptrend. Wonder if 2q is a gd quarter

      • stockbisque says:

        To my understanding, NSSF actually sold 1.5M shares (from 9.09% to 9.01%), as it’s within 1%-range, disclosure wasn’t required. And on 20/05/2013, it sold another 400,000 shares. FYI, NSSF got 12,261,600 shares from partial exercise of the IPO over-allotment option, so its holding right after IPO was 162,261,600 shares (9.09%).

        About 956 & 958, although the selling prices are lower than the previous ones, FIL/FML are still making profit as the selling prices are still above the costs of last purchases (of course, FIL/FML average costs for these stock are quite low, maybe around $2 for 958 and $1.7 for 956).

        Pulling the above info together, I guess FIL/FML (i.e. Fidelty) considers 956 and 958 a little bit over-priced and therefore reduce holdings in these two stocks and bought 816 (2 days before offloading 956/958). Does it sound logical?

        But the timing that Fidelty bought 816 is a little awkward, I wasn’t sure when it bought 816 @ 2.66 on 20/05/2013 did it realize its Q1 results?

        Ok, another possibility: Fidelty is disappointed by 816 Q1 results and doubt the outlook of the new energy sector, so offloaded 956 & 958.

        816’s Q2 should be better than Q1: with so much rain recently, Q2 hydro segment should be similar to last year, maybe H1 profit attributable to equity owner is around $500~550M (a rough guess). Also, the sooner the Kemen II deal is completed, the better the whole year results, given the current low coal cost.

  5. Tf says:

    Thanks for your clarification. Seen so many passages of yours, it just gets longer and more detailed. just out of interest, why did you pick 816 and not the others ?

    I guess for all the new energy stocks, most of the foundation investors have offloaded to a level where they do not need to disclose, whereas fidelity is sweeping like crazy – maybe they have some new fund/products coming up in this sector since it is a long term concept?

    This few weeks has been very quiet and very weak for new energy stocks…no momentum at all and if so, downwards. Thinking of a level to buy back, what is your thought? 2.2 should be quite a strong support.

    For H1 result, 550M is still a disappointing figure given the 2012 comparison, I think we have priced in for that, but still not sure why the PE is lagging by far from others.

    You going on holiday or work commitments?

    Take care, tf

    • stockbisque says:

      Why 816?
      1. 816’s business is relatively easily to analysis
      2. industry news is readily avialble and up-to-date
      3. becasue of 2, it’s sort of a level play field for all investors. (I mean big institutional investors don’t have information advantage over small investors)
      4. to me, long-term prospects for 816’s is brighter than other new energy players.

      After 816, I wish I can find other analysis target, but no candidate so far.

      The cost for cornerstone investors of new energy stocks is relatively low and I think they have strong urge to realize their profit (most of them made more than 30%) when their own business is just so-so . Maybe “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. I can imagine cornerstone investors faced a lot of pressure in the middle of last year when the prices were half of what we have today. On the other hand, funds like Fidelty should have bought not a small portion when the sector hit bottom last year.

      $2.2 is a good entry point. Been waiting for a bigger dip, but it seems unlikely as the remaining cornerstones investors stop offloading. With the downturn in coal, 山西潞安 should be the most likely one to cash in the gain in 816.

      I speculate some big funds are waiting for futher disposal by cornerstone investors too and that is why 816 price is trailing behind its peer.

      It’s not easy for 816 to make $550M in the H1 and the market should have discounted it by now (also, there was an one-off gain of $131M last year). Anyway, perplexed by the revenue number, which is lower than expectation.

      I did an estimate for 2014/future earnings and based on that I bought back few thousand shares of 816. Talk more on 2014 earning later.

  6. Tf says:

    Good job, I think you chose the right stock, just that the right time hasn’t come. I see it as being undervalued too, maybe because of the volatility of its earnings, but you can also argue it has the diversification effect.

    I think we are on the same page and I mentioned before as well the cornerstone investors will prefer taking profit now to act as a buffer for an uncertain year and leave it to the funds to fight for the future. Still a bit curious on what kind of investors took the other shares but as long as they don’t disclose, we never know.

    Today’s report from MLBOA was a little boost out of nowhere, fry in the morning leave in the afternoon – still outperforming the index anyway. I am thinking the H1 result might be an excuse to push it down again, we shall see soon.

  7. Tf says:

    華電福新首季水電量低過預期,是由於降雨延遲至5月。福新表示,自5月開始,水量已大幅回升,並預料今年水電量將達80億千瓦時,超出該行預期。該行指,水電價格每上調1%,福新今年純利將增1%。風電方面,位於新疆和甘肅的風電場利用率,將於今年第四季或明年首季反彈,利用率每增1%,福新今年每股盈測將增5.3%

    Is this in line with your forecast? A lower 1H than last year might still be a reason to sell down.

    • stockbisque says:

      Did some calculation this morning.

      Assming coal price stays at current level, a hydro generation of 80億千瓦時 and
      wind utilization hours this year=2012’s figure, I estimated operation income
      for 2013 increased by about 300~350M.

      If finance expenese increases less than 200M, the net profit increased by 100~150M,
      just enough to offset the one time gain of about $ 131.8
      from disposing Kemen Logistic last year.

      So, 2013 net earnings is probably equals to that of 2012.
      2013 EPS is roughly RMB$0.135.

      It’s harder to estimate the H1 than whole year figure,
      maybe 480M in the H1 and 520M in the H2.

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